Understand executive behaviors to predict stock success. Decode leadership styles to anticipate market moves and boost your returns.
Receive recommended investment options, situational analysis, and projected stock changes.
While macroeconomic models predict the market and microeconomics of the industry, there are no psychology models that predict a company’s performance. No one denies that a great leader can turn pennies into gold, and a bad leader can turn gold into pennies. Like in professional sports, a superstar can take a team to a championship or create dysfunction and disappointment. Yet, there is a lack of detailed analysis of those selected to lead these organizations.
Our desire is to apply quantitative analysis to understand the organization's leaders, their behaviors, beliefs, attitudes, and influence on the company.
NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) pushed out Mauricio Gutierrez and named Lawrence Coben, Ph.D. in November, 2023. Gutierrez was a poor fit despite his background and education in energy. Conversely, Coben’s profile indicated he was a great fit. I invested immediately, and the stock is now up 90% YTD.
Buffett said investing was a simple comparison of the company’s value compared to the stock price. Yet, like sports teams, value is predicated on the coach and players. Shockingly, in my experience at a top-tier hedge fund and as a portfolio manager of a mutual fund, we don’t have a consistent and reliable quantitative approach to value leadership. Charlie’s Almanack provides standardized evaluations with detailed comparisons to competitors, staff, and the market that improve our models and investing strategies.
